Independent at last, Kosovo prepares for the next stage

25/02/2008

Leaders in Pristina will need to turn their attention to the regional setting if they want to avoid isolation, writes the University of Toronto's Robert C. Austin.

By Robert C Austin for Southeast European Times – 25/02/08

Kosovo Albanians celebrate Sunday (February 17th) after their prime minister proclaimed Kosovo "an independent, sovereign and democratic state". [Getty Images]

The long-anticipated Kosovo independence declaration came on February 17th with massive jubilation among the majority ethnic Albanians and considerable apprehension from Serb and other minorities. The international community is calling for calm, but a sense of uncertainty still prevails. While the UN provided important help in the past nine years, Kosovo's transition begins now in earnest with the planned arrival of a new EU police and justice mission. There is a huge amount of work ahead.

Elections in November were won by the Democratic Party (PDK) of Hashim Thaci, who long sat on the government's sidelines owing to profound disagreements with the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). The new coalition put Thaci in the driver's seat at a critical moment, while also bringing together the two rival parties in a coalition government. Early signals have been promising, especially as Thaci's administration seems ready to go the extra mile to reassure Kosovo's Serbs. Statements on independence were conciliatory. Calls to celebrate independence with dignity were largely observed.

Nevertheless, the elections themselves gave some cause for worry. Voter turnout was low, due to widespread disenchantment with the generally low level of progress. Kosovo has pressing economic and social issues, and more than a few voters feel the current crop of politicians and parties is just not up to the job.

People in Kosovo are not so naïve as to believe independence will bring an end to unemployment and pervasive poverty. According to Shpend Ahmeti, executive director of the Pristina-based think tank Institute for Advanced Studies, "Kosovo's government has yet to articulate Kosovo's competitive advantage in the regional context that will be required to attract foreign investment and provide jobs." Politicians have not moved far beyond simply promising riches from the alleged wealth of Kosovo's mines and citing the existence of a young and large labour force.

Prime Minister Hashim Thaci and his government are under pressure to show Kosovo's leadership can bring about a better standard of living [Getty Images]

Xhavit Haliti, an assembly member and long a senior figure in both the PDK and the Kosovo Liberation Army, believes a new power plant is vitally needed. At this point, Kosovo is not meeting domestic demand, and few investors will bother with Kosovo in such circumstances. "Only guaranteed power," Haliti says, "can guarantee foreign investment".

The government in Kosovo, which is notable for the new faces and the fact the PDK demanded that the LDK not recycle any new cabinet ministers from the previous government, is ready to proceed. A key promise is to wage the usual war on corruption. And the parliament has pledged its willingness to adopt the Ahtisaari package which provides a real incentive to the minority groups to join the institutions. The government knows that the months ahead will be messy – especially in Northern Kosovo where the Serbs living there are refusing to join an independent Kosovo. Any re-integration of that region will be extremely difficult and the government needs to proceed with caution.

The big issue is how Kosovo's politicians plan to navigate the potentially dangerous few months following independence within the regional setting. Kosovo’s independence will not destabilize Europe, but it could set back the positive gains that have been made in transforming the Balkans into a stable and integrated region. Serbia, while insisting it will avoid violence, has pledged a series of unspecified measures against Kosovo and states that decide to recognize Kosovo's independence. Such measures could have the greatest impact on states in the region such as Montenegro and Macedonia, where good relations with Serbia are crucial, as opposed to EU member states where the Serbs have little influence.

The Serbs have floated the idea of a blocking border points with Kosovo and even cutting off electricity supplies, although officials have since appeared to back off this threat. According to the PDK's Haliti, economic sanctions could well hurt Serbia more than they would Kosovo, given that Serbia exports about 200m euros worth of goods to Kosovo every year. Nevertheless, the region has doubtless not seen the last of leaders who, so to speak, prefer to bite their nose in order to spite their face.

A new study by GAP analysts suggests Serbia's ability to shape Kosovo's economic direction is limited, but not irrelevant. The report does not deny the most obvious problem in Kosovo -- namely, outside of politics very little is produced there. Kosovo's trade imbalance is truly astounding.

Many Kosovo villagers walk four hours each day to climb the Lutoten mountains and pick blueberries as a source of livelihood. The newly independent republic faces massive unemployment, a lack of foreign investment, and other economic woes. [Getty Images]

Fortunately for the newly-declared republic, the largest percentage of imports comes from Macedonia and the EU, whereas Serbian imports represented 13%. The problem, however, is that nearly 30% of imports – regardless of origin – enter Kosovo via Serbia. This means that many European importers to Kosovo may need to find alternative and more expensive ways to Kosovo.

Goods aside, Kosovo's leaders will need to work hard to ensure free movement of people. While Macedonia will likely allow Kosovars to enter Macedonia visa-free with UNMIK travel documents, they will not necessarily do the same for those carrying a new Republic of Kosovo passport.

Montenegro, which faces the biggest quandary regarding recognition of Kosovo owing to its need for good relations with Serbia, might find itself having to close the border with Kosovo if it opts for non-recognition. Add to that a closed border with Serbia and Kosovo’s people are left with only Albania's treacherous roads as an exit point.

While decisions in Brussels and Washington do matter and everyone knows that Kosovo's leaders prefer high politics, they must now turn their attention to the regional setting if they are to avoid a period of isolation where ordinary citizens pay the highest price. People in the Balkans justifiably demand that the barriers go down, not up, both in the region and in Europe.

Robert C Austin teaches at the Centre for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Munk Centre for International Studies, University of Toronto.