Socialists to decide Serbia's political future

03/06/2008

The Socialist Party of Serbia-led bloc can decide the composition of a new Serbian government and which path Serbia will take -- but the bloc lacks a unified stand on future coalition partners.

By Igor Jovanovic for Southeast European Times in Belgrade – 03/06/08

The Socialist Party of Serbia may determine the government. [sps.org]

The three-party coalition led by the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), which has only 20 seats in parliament and polled about 8% in the May 11th elections, can decide who will form the new Serbian government.

The SPS, led by former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic until his death in 2006, now has a chance for a new beginning. Moreover, it can also determine Serbia's path over the next four years.

Together with the SPS are the Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS) and the regional party United Serbia. However, the bloc remains undecided on partners in a governing coalition.

The Serbian Radical Party and the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), on the one hand, and the Democratic Party (DS), on the other, need the SPS bloc to form a government. The Radicals and the DSS, headed by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, are prepared to suspend EU integration rather than recognise Kosovo's independence, while President Boris Tadic's DS advocates rapid European integration.

Analysts say that the SPS faces a difficult choice -- its voters strongly favour the Radicals and Kostunica, but a coalition with the DS would boost the SPS politically and garner it a membership in the Socialist International.

"Politically and ideologically, the SPS is much closer to the Radicals and the DSS," political analyst Dejan Vuk Stankovic told the Southeast European Times.

However, analyst Zoran Stojiljkovic says that the SPS will most likely choose the Democrats, to bring about more investment, better relations with the EU and hence the higher living standard that it promised to voters.

Both analysts agree that any new government will very much depend on the SPS's partners. The PUPS has five and United Serbia has three of the bloc's 20 seats. Those MPs can leave the bloc and independently decide whom to back in the parliament. Their statements to date indicate closeness to Tadic's DS.

However, last week the SPS agreed with the DSS and the Radicals to form a new Belgrade municipal administration, which will strain talks with the DS on a republic-level coalition.

"The DS's offer to the SPS to form a new government stands, [despite the SPS-DSS-Radical coalition] in Belgrade," DS senior official Dragoljub Micunovic said.

The SPS says too that the arrangement in Belgrade need not transfer to the republic level. "We do not have a majority coalition at the Serbian level yet," SPS Vice President Branko Ruzic said.

Either way, the SPS has until mid-September to decide. Failure to form a new government by then would force a new general election.