Smaller parties could call the shots after tight Croatian vote

26/11/2007

Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's Croatian Democratic Union inched past the Social Democrats in Sunday's election, but both parties are well short of the needed majority in parliament. Intense coalition talks can be expected in the days ahead.

By Natasa Radic for Southeast European Times in Zagreb – 26/11/07

HDZ leader and Prime Minister Ivo Sanader reacts as the preliminary results of Sunday's (November 25th) elections are received. [Getty Images]

With the ruling party edging ahead but the left-wing opposition potentially able to build a coalition, it may be some time before the outcome of Sunday's (November 25th) general election in Croatia is clear. Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Social Democrats (SDP) must both now scramble to pull together the 77 votes needed for a parliamentary majority.

Preliminary results, based on over 97% of the vote, show the HDZ with 35.84% of the vote, giving it 60 seats. The Social Democrats trail with 31.84%, or 57 seats. In third place is a coalition formed by the Croatian Peasant's Party (HSS), the Social Liberal Party (HSLS) and the Highland Region Alliance (PGS), with eight seats. The Croatian People's Party (HNS) is fourth with seven seats.

HDZ leader Sanader was the first to begin celebrating. As soon as the results were in, he declared his party the winner and said he would ask President Stipe Mesic for the mandate to form a government. The atmosphere at HDZ party headquarters was euphoric. However, so was the scene at the SDP offices, where party members were enjoying an "unplugged" concert by a Croatian rock band. SDP leader Zoran Milanovic has vowed to collect the votes needed to gain the prime minister's post.

It will be up to smaller parties to decide who finally comes out the winner. The left-wing HNS has already said it is ready to join a coalition with the SDP, but the kingmaker in this election will likely be the centrist HSS-HSLS-PGS coalition. It is currently in negotiations with both Sanader and Milanovic. As an old Croatian saying goes, whoever offers more will get the bride.

The Croatian diaspora, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina where support for HDZ is strong, could also tip the balance. Diaspora voters are expected to give Sanader and his party up to five additional seats.

President Mesic, monitoring the election returns from his office, said he would "give the mandate to form the government to those who give a clear guarantee of 77 parliamentary votes". The president spoke to both candidates on election night, but declined to comment on his preferences, saying he wants to stay neutral during the process.