Macedonia in troubled waters following NATO summit

21/04/2008

Macedonia's hopes of NATO and EU integration hinge on reaching a compromise with Greece and fulfilling a set of eight benchmarks set by Brussels. But with the country now in political limbo, progress on both fronts could be delayed.

By Zoran Nikolovski for Southeast European Times in Skopje – 21/04/08

Macedonians wave flags during a protest of the possible name change in Skopje last month. [Getty Images]

After their initial shock and disbelief at the failure to receive a NATO membership invitation, Macedonians are now preparing to go to the polls on June 1st. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski decided to accept a proposal by the Democratic Union of Albanians (DUI) for early parliamentary elections. He said he wanted to a new mandate and a more stable parliamentary composition, and in that way solve the problems that many expect may pile up by the summer.

The move, however, has sparked criticism, with some saying a round of elections will simply distract focus from the main problem at hand -- resolving the name dispute with Greece. The disagreement not only stood in the way of a NATO invitation at the Bucharest summit, but also could affect the start of negotiations on EU membership.

At Bucharest, NATO leaders agreed that if Athens and Skopje are able to reach a compromise, a decision on extending an invitation to Macedonia could be made at the ambassadorial level, without having to wait for another summit. Meeting with Gruevski and President Branko Crvenkovski, US Ambassador to NATO Victoria Nuland urged resolution of the name issue "within days or weeks, not months". She urged Skopje to "seize the moment", and try to hammer out a compromise while NATO is still focused on the issue.

During a marathon debate on dissolving parliament, however, the opposition Social Democrats charged that Gruevski was turning his back on the allies and opting instead for a domestic political battle. Addressing lawmakers, Crvenkovski claimed that he and Gruevski had earlier agreed on the need for a compromise with Greece, and had gone to Bucharest ready to accept the name Republic of Macedonia (Skopje) -- international mediator Matthew Nimetz's most recent proposal.

In any case, Macedonia's prospects for integration -- both in NATO and the EU -- now appear complicated by several factors.

US Ambassador to the NATO Victoria Nuland (left) and Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski hold a press conference after their meeting. [Getty Images]

The EU has put forward eight benchmarks which Macedonia must fulfil if it wants the European Commission (EC) to even consider the start of negotiations. But with the elections now scheduled for June, it will be difficult to meet those conditions by the time the EC issues its reports in September. It will be already be mid-summer before a new government can be constituted.

With parliament dissolved, meanwhile, opportunities for further negotiations with Greece are constricted. The government now functions in a technical capacity, with limited competencies and a ban on making major decisions. While Washington has been a strong advocate of Macedonia's integration, the United States could become less focused on the Balkans as its own presidential elections approach.

NATO membership is widely regarded not only as a major milestone, but also crucial for Macedonia's stability. Although a 2001 ethnic conflict was defused through the Ohrid Accord, multi-ethnic democracy in the country is still a work in progress. Institutions remain fragile, and uncertainty about integration prospects is no boon to the weak Macedonian economy. The country has a 113m euro trade deficit, rising inflation, and an unemployment rate of around 35%.

Increased foreign investment is needed to solve these problems, but the post-Bucharest summit uncertainty does not make Macedonia a more attractive place for investors. Together, economic woes and institutional problems could be fertile ground for resurgent nationalism, especially in the wake of Kosovo independence. The Macedonia-Kosovo border has not been marked, and secessionist groups could feel emboldened by developments in the region.

"If [Macedonia] does not enter NATO now, I have to tell you that I seriously doubt if your country will continue to exist a decade later," Edward Joseph of the International Crisis Group warned during an interview on March 21st. "I am seriously concerned because the Macedonian identity is seriously jeopardised by neighbours, who I fear have dark agendas."

Opposition Social Democrats and Liberal Democrats leave a parliament session on April 12 after voting on a motion to dissolve the assembly in Skopje. [Getty Images]

Albania's prime minister, Sali Berisha, has also expressed concern that radicalization could take place in Macedonia if the country stays outside NATO. "The name issue is a matter that must be solved and can be solved," he told the BBC recently.

The Macedonian elections are expected to be fiercely contested, with bitter and polarising rhetoric. The debate over dissolving parliament offered a taste of what may be in store, with the Social Democrats accusing the ruling VMRO-DPMNE of "betraying" Macedonia. The opposition also claims the Gruevski administration is preparing to rig the elections, because the ruling party did not allow passage of some key election legislation -- including the appointment of a new State Election Committee president and a regulation on equal access to state-run media.

With Macedonians dismayed by Greece's veto and worried about ethnic tension at home, it may be difficult for politicians to avoid playing to nationalist sentiment.

"I have the feeling that both political campuses in Macedonia will confront each other in terms of proving who is a greater patriot and who is smaller, and this is absolutely unimportant at the moment," says Tanja Karakamiseva, a law professor at the University of Skopje. "It is important to keep up with Europe."